Should Denmark  join the Euro-Zone? - Final news and polls: (To  see polls up to September 28 please scroll down.)


Headlines September 28:

Denmarks voters rejected the Euro.

53,2 voted NO and 46,8% voted YES!

 

bulletExit polls of September 28 (TV2/Magafon and Gallup):
Time Yes NO Base (n)
1 P.M. / Megafon 47.5% 52.5% 6000
3 P.M. / Megafon 48.5% 51.5% 10.000
5 P.M. / Megafon 49.2% 50.8% 15.000
8 P.M. /Gallup 50.0% 50.0% (2000?)

 

bulletAlmost nothing new happened today. The newspapers were full of political ads trying to persuade Danes to vote yes or no. The very last television debate - all top politicians did participate - probably changed nothing.

 

bulletAccording to the polls - currently 3-4 are published every day - the result will be VERY close (scroll down to see today´s polls). Our best guess right now is 50:50. However, the outcome will be a yes OR a no...

 

bulletDuring election day (28), there will be exit-polls. We expect to provide you with the latest news in about 12 hours. So stay tooned... 

Headlines September 26:  

 

bulletSeveral top-politicians affiliated with  the no-camp do not exclude that Denmark joins the Euro at a later point of time, provided that both Great Britain and Sweden decide to joint the Euro as a consequence of popular referendums. According to yes-sayers, this point of view undermines the fundamental argument of the yes-side, namely that the Euro will never work. - Jyllands Posten,  September 26. 

 

bulletThis evening there was a big panel debate on Danish prime TV (DR-TV). ALL top politicians participated. According to observers neither the yes or the no camp won. The outcome of the game seemed to be undecided.

 

September 25:

bulletClick here to read the Economists  brand new editorial on the Danish referendum and its consequences. 


bulletToday many foreign journalists have started arriving in Denmark. They try doing their best explaining why plain Danes - unlike citizens in all other remaining EU-countries - have to vote on the Euro.


 
bulletSeveral national dailies cover a high brow joint press conference involving all Danish yes-parties. The press conference - held yesterday - included the leaders of both the two government parties and the three opposition parties. During the conference, all politicians strongly favored a yes. It is the first time ever that a Danish Government and the country's big opposition parties join forces in a press conference. - BT September 25


bulletTwo top politicians representing the no campaign, Holger K. Nielsen (Peoples Socialist Party) and Pia Kjærsgaard (Danish Peoples Party) ask the prime minister what will happen, if the outcome of the referendum will be a yes? According to the Edinburgh-treatment (1993) Denmark has four exemption clauses concerning our EU-membership (the EURO, Juridical co-operation, Military co-operation, and European citizenship). Nielsen and Kjærsgaard are eager to know, when the next exemption cause will generate a referendum. Today, the Danish foreign minister on TV ensured that a referendum will be held concerning each of the three remaining referendums - regardless if the referendum on the Euro becomes a no.

 

Headlines September 24:

bullet"Nyrup states that Government will provide defensive actions after a no vote" - Jyllands Posten, September 24

 

bulletToday four polls were published. Three polls indicate that the lead of the yes-camp is declining and that the outcome of the election promises to be very close (scroll down to see the specifics). The distance in percentages between yes and no seems to be narrowing. The well-known Danish "election day referendum nightmare" lies right ahead  - So stay tuned...

 

bulletA no-camp leader Mrs. Drude Dahlerup (Movement of June 1992) complains that the press these days favor viewpoints of yes-sayers. The editorial of all national dailies (except the tabloid Ekstra Bladet) recommend a yes-vote. Furthermore, the overwhelming majority of ads by political parties, companies and opinion leaders argue in favor of a yes-vote. However, editors of electronic as well as print media stress that they are committed towards objectivity. 

 

Headlines September 23:

bulletAccording to the Chair of the Danish Labor Organization (LO), Hans Jensen, Danish workers will on average have their annual disposable income reduced by 5450 DKK (730 Euro) if the result of the referendum  becomes a no. This figure is denied by no-sayers. 
- Jyllands Posten, September 23



bullet"Ready for the Disaster" - B.T., September 23

Prime minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen is preparing for a no-scenario. He has recognized that the referendum may well be "lost" (most Danish politicians regard referendums as a win/loose situation). Consequently, he and his ministers of finance and economy are getting ready to protect the Danish Krone during the days after the referendum. 



bulletStill all polls show a majority of no-sayers. However, several scientists wonder if some voters, providing no-answers when they are called by a polling-company, may once more make up their mind and vote yes on the day of the election. When being called these people want to "demonstrate" that they do not trust the politicians concerning EU-related topics. Therefore, they "vote" no. It is free and without consequences to "punish" the government and the yes-camp by casting a no "vote" in a poll. However, on election day the vote really counts and the outcome has economical and political consequences. It is speculated that such voters may be "frightened by their own shadow" (Danish saying) and eventually vote yes.  If such voters exist and if they make up 5-10% of the electorate, then their behavior makes it impossible to make implications from polls to the outcome of the referendum on September 28.


bulletThe central banks of USA, Japan, Great Britain and the European Central Bank on September 22 intervened on the financial markets and bought Euros. The purpose was to stop the worsening exchange rate of the Euro vis-a-vis the USD and other mayor currencies. Some experts think that this intervention was partially caused by the upcoming Danish referendum. The central bankers in Frankfurt, so the argument goes, wanted to give the yes-camp a helping hand. Who knows .............. - Jyllands Posten, September 22.

Headlines September 22:

bulletSeveral polls are published that may help explaining why the no-side is way ahead in the polls. According to one poll by Greens (Børsen, September 22th) one of three voters state that the falling value of the Euro - as compared to the USD - play a role concerning their intention to vote yes or no. only 15% of voters refer to the EU-sanctions against Austria. However, it assmued that almost all these voters have become much more sceptical towards EU as consequence of these sanctions aimed at boycotting a small souvereign state. The same poll also shows that while yes-sayers do not think that their pensions will be lowered or eroded if we join the Euro-Zone, almost half ot no-sayers think this will be the case. Another poll by Dansk Markedsanalyse, published in Jyllands Posten (September 19th) show that  five out of six voters (84%) expect  the average pension in Denmark to fall.  The overwhelming majority think that the amount which retired Danes are to receive in twenty to thirty years from now will be lower than today.

Headlines September 21:

bullet"A no-vote implies the loss of 20.000 jobs"
- Politiken, September 21.

Today, the ministers of Economy and Finance (Marianne Jelved and Mogens Lykketoft) attended a press conference where they informed the audience that a no-vote "is not without consequences". On the other hand, a yes vote, according to the ministers, will benefit the Danish Society.  Assumed that Denmark joins the Euro-Zone, the Danish welfare system will gain approximately 20 billion DKK across the next five years. Thus, a yes vote will enable the government to lower taxes, improve the welfare system etc.  

Headlines September 20:

bulletPrime minister Rasmussen is still confident that the outcome of the referendum will be a yes. Says Rasmussen:, "The battle is not lost." According Rasmussen a yes-vote implies more welfare and influence. Furthermore, he will not resign, assumed that the referendum will be "lost" (no-vote). Jyllands Posten Online, September 20th.

Headlines September 19: 

bulletThe Euro is still fading. For the first time it is worth less than ,85 USD. Since it's launch it has lost 30% of its value. - Jyllands Posten Online, September 19.
bulletSunday evening Prime Minister Nyrup Rasmussen on prime time TV publicly announced that one of the coming days he would send a letter to all EU-Prime Ministers asking them to assure that the Danish pension system is guaranteed for many years and that the EU will not legislate on matters concerning the Danish pension system (the Minister of Economy Mrs. Marianne Jelved even suggested that the pensions are guaranteed "at least until the year 2045"). However, during Tuesday Nyrup Rasmussen changed his mind and gave up sending the letter (ALL newspaper's editorials and top-politicians strongly advised him not to send this letter, because it might hurt the yes campaign - due to his low popular credibility (Reason: se Jyllands Posten September 18, right below). - Obviously, Mr. Rasmussen presently is very  frustrated by the bad polls. According to an interview by German news magazine Der Spiegel he refuses to resign if he "looses" the popular referendum. On the contrary, he "threatens" to stay... Der Spiegel, No. 18, 2000 and several Danish Dailies, September 19.

Headlines September 18:

bulletAll yes-parties (Social Democrats, Left Liberals, Conservatives, Right Liberals and Center Democrats) agree on issuing a "guarantee" concerning the pensions: According to the parties, the Danish pension system is ensured and will not be changed for many years to come (The minister of Economy says that the pensions are safe at least until the year 2045). The prime minister Nyrup Rasmussen has stated that the guarantee will be part of the "magna charta" of the government. Problem is: Two times prior to the last Danish election, the prime minister has issued guarantees (concerning the welfare system and EU-related topics) that he was not able to fulfill ("Read my lips..."), Jyllands Posten, September 18.

Headlines September 16: 

bulletHead of the European Cental bank denies that the Euro-Zone will evolve into a European Superstate. - Berlingske Tidende, September 16 
bullet"The yes-side panics" - Jyllands Posten, September 16. Proponents are frustrated by recent polls, indicating that the outcome of the referendum will be a no. The no-side has come up with a very effective argument: If we join the Euro-Zone, the "pension-for-everyone" (one of the corner stones of the Danish welfare system) is in danger. The pension system will be privatized and everyone will have to take care of himself.  The Government (Social Democrats and Left Liberals) want to join forces with the big opposition parties (Right Liberals and Conservatives). The purpose is to launch a joint campaign during the remaining 12 days.

Recent Polls:

Agency Day of Publication Yes No ?
GfK September 27 47 47 6
Vilstrup September 27 44 43 13
Gallup September 27 49.5 50.5 -
Megafon September 27 44 46 10
Gallup September 26 42 46 12
GfK September 25 41 44 15
Gallup September 25 42 46 12
Vilstrup September 25 45 43 12
Megafon September 25 43 48 9
Gallup September 24 44 46 10
Vilstrup September 24 43 44 13
Megafon September 24 40 51 9
Sonar September 24 42 44 14
Vilstrup September 23 41 45 14
Gallup September 22 40 48 12
Vilstrup September 22 38 48 14
Greens September 22 44 51 5
Gallup September 21 38 49 13
Vilstrup September 21 40 47 13
Gallup September 19 38 49 13
Vilstrup September 19 42 45 13
Gallup September 18 37 49 14
Vilstrup September 18 40 42 18
DS September 16 43 49 8
Gallup September 16 40 45 15
Megafon September 15 40 49 11
Greens September 15 44 49 7
Gallup September 15 40 44 16
Vilstrup September 15 40 44 16
Gallup September 13 40 45 15
Vilstrup September 12 41 41 18
Vilstrup September 11 42 40 18
Gallup September 10 40 45 15
Vilstrup September 10 43 38 19
Gallup September 9 40 45 15
Vilstrup September 9 43 38 19
Gallup September 8 41 44 15
Vilstrup September 7 42 38 20
Gallup September 7 42 43 15
GfK September 7 45 42 13
Greens September 6 48 44 8
Gallup September 6 42 41 17
Gallup September 5 43 41 16
Gallup September 4 42 40 18

Note: Most polls are based on approximately 1000 interviews. Usually, they have been collected between two and five days prior to publication in the newspapers. Gallup and Vilstrup do not conduct 1000 "fresh" interviews each day. Basically, they carry out about 200 interviews a day. Then, after five days, they have collected 1000 interviews and publish this as a poll. On day six they carry out 200 new interviews. Next, they delete the 200 interviews that were conducted on day one. Thus the poll published on day six (in the evening) will be based on the 1000 interviews conducted on days two to six. And so on. It is strange, though, that the change in yes/no-percentages sometimes vary considerably from one day to the next, since 80% of the interviews will be "recycled" from yesterday's poll. If figures concerning, say, the no-percentage goes up 2-3 units from one day to the next, then consequently, the raw number of the 200 interviews carried out on that day must have contained 10%-15% more - new - no-sayers than yes-sayers. While this is not impossible due to the small daily sample, it is very unlikely, though. The only other explanation to these strange day-to-day variations seems to be that the polling agencies change method across the period under observation or that they allow for weights that vary across time i.e. so that interviews collected today are given a higher weight than interviews collected several days ago.